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That 2011 YouTube comment about a kid in Detroit being the next big thing was right, but was it luck or did we just get lucky?
I was scrolling old comments on a 240p clip from 2011 and found a guy saying 'this kid from Detroit will headline in 10 years' when the video had like 300 views, and sure enough last month he sold out a 20k arena. But was that a real prediction or just one of a thousand guesses that happened to stick? Curious what you all think about the difference between spotting something early and just rolling dice.
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samrodriguez1d ago
That "one of a thousand guesses" thing is real, but the odds change a lot when someone actually has talent you can point to, even in a 240p clip. I saw the same thing with a local rapper back in 2012, and the difference was he already had a style you could spot in 30 seconds, so calling it early felt less like luck and more like paying attention. The guesses that stick are usually the ones where the person was already doing something nobody else was doing yet.
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