That 2019 Reddit thread about supply chain bottlenecks actually got it right

I remember scrolling through r/logistics back in October 2019 and seeing this guy rant about how one port shutdown in California would ripple for 6 months. Everyone called him a conspiracy nut. I even laughed at it myself. Then spring 2020 hit and I couldn't get a simple brake rotor for my 2012 F150 for 14 weeks. Made me dig up that thread and realize I was the one who was wrong for dismissing real expertise just because it sounded dramatic. Anyone else got a moment where you totally dismissed a prediction that turned out dead on?

3 comments

3 Comments

scott.olivia4d ago

Did you ever go back and find the original poster to see if they had more predictions? Its wild how specific that one was. I blew off a buddy who warned me about lumber prices in late 2019 because he worked at a sawmill, figured he was just being dramatic about his job stuff. Then I tried to build a simple deck in summer 2020 and a single sheet of plywood was like 70 bucks. Kinda made me feel like an idiot for not listening sooner.

daniel_cooper343d ago

haha yeah man I feel that. Your buddy probably knew exactly what was coming, lumber mills shut down in early 2020 for covid and then demand went through the roof. The original poster on that thread was actually from a construction sub, not a meme one, so he had some legit industry insight. I went back and checked his profile, turns out he was a project manager for a big framing company and he'd been warning about supply chain stuff for months before anyone cared. Kinda wild how certain people just see the dominoes falling before everyone else does.

jordan_henderson133d ago

That 2019 thread you're talking about... I remember reading a paper from the Journal of Supply Chain Management in early 2020 that basically said the same thing. They broke down how just in time inventory was a ticking time bomb. Felt weird reading academic jargon when toilet paper was gone from every store near me.