That 'predicted the entire housing crash' blog post from 2006 I laughed at

Back in 2006, some random guy in Cleveland posted a 2,000 word rant on a real estate forum about how adjustable rate mortgages were a time bomb. I remember commenting that he was just jealous of people making money off flips. Then 2008 hit and every single thing he listed came true, down to the exact suburbs in Florida that went under first. So here's my debate: does a prediction count if the person is right but for the wrong reasons, or was he just another chicken little who finally got one call right? Has anyone else dug up an old post that made you feel like a total fool for arguing against it?

3 comments

3 Comments

nina_hall483d ago

The real kicker is he probably got lucky on the timing but the logic was still sound, broken clocks and all that. Honestly, I'd rather be the fool who argued against it than the guy who was right and still couldn't cash in on his own warning.

pat_roberts552d agoMost Upvoted

@nina_hall48 that's backwards, being right with bad logic is just luck and luck isn't skill.

wilson.olivia2d ago

Monday's market dip proved that point though, timing the exit matters way more than being right about the direction.