That one comment on a 2010 blog post about housing prices in Phoenix still haunts me

I was digging through old forums last night looking for info on my neighborhood and stumbled on a comment from some guy named "AZ_Steve" back in February 2010. He was posting on a local real estate board saying he thought the market was still overvalued by at least 25 percent and people were dumb to buy then. Everyone in the thread laughed at him and called him a doomer. I remember reading it as a kid and not thinking much of it. Fast forward to 2024 and I just paid $420k for a 3 bed 2 bath that went for $180k in 2011. That guy was basically spot on and nobody listened. Has anyone else found old predictions that turned out way more accurate than people gave them credit for?

3 comments

3 Comments

hugotaylor5d ago

Oh man, that's a good point actually. You're saying AZ_Steve was right but for the wrong reasons and at the wrong time, right? Like if he was so sure prices would drop 25 percent from 2010 levels, why didn't he call the bottom in 2011 when they actually hit it? I'm trying to figure out if being directionally correct counts as being smart or if he just got lucky with his bearish take while everyone else was riding the wave. What do you think separates a real prediction from a lucky guess in this kind of market stuff?

phoenix_singh255d ago

I actually disagree a bit here. 180k in 2011 was the absolute bottom of the crash, not a normal price. Houses in Phoenix were selling for way less than they were worth because the whole system collapsed. AZ_Steve said the market was overvalued by 25% in 2010, but by 2011 prices had dropped way more than that, so his number was wrong timing wise. The people laughing at him in 2010 were probably not thinking about how long it would take to recover. They were reacting to the moment, and in that moment, prices did keep falling for another year. Hindsight makes him look like a genius but he was just guessing like everyone else.

miles_robinson204d ago

Disagree a bit, sounds like AZ_Steve just happened to be gloomier than the crowd at the right time.